90 天 Catalyst 日历¶
本页核心
未来 90 天 30+ 个公开 catalyst — 填进你 thesis 的 catalysts_90d 字段, 或用于 P3-C3 找瓶颈 leading 信号.
数据来源
全部来自公开 IR + 公司财报日历 + 行业 conference 公告. 0 付费 source. 每月手工 refresh.
当前周期 (2026 Q2-Q3 sample)¶
财报 (June 2026)¶
| 日期 | 公司 | 季度 | look_for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 (AMC) ✅ 已发 | NVDA | Q1 FY27 | 实际: Revenue $81.6B (consensus ~$73B, beat), Data Center $75.2B (consensus ~$70B, beat), GAAP GM 74.9% / non-GAAP 75.0%, Q2 FY27 guide $91B; $80B 新回购授权 + 季度 dividend $0.01→$0.25 (8-K SEC) |
| 2026-05-28 | CRM | Q1 FY27 | Einstein revenue, Agentforce growth, RPO |
| 2026-06-04 | AVGO | Q2 FY26 | TPU revenue, AI ASIC backlog, networking growth |
| 2026-06-11 | ORCL | Q4 FY26 | RPO $553B 是否再上, OpenAI commit verification |
| 2026-06-18 | ADBE | Q2 FY26 | Firefly ARR, Creative Cloud AI monetization |
| 2026-06-25 | MU | Q3 FY26 | HBM3e ramp, Q4 guide, HBM4 timing |
财报 (July 2026)¶
| 日期 | 公司 | 季度 | look_for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | TSM (Earnings) | Q2 2026 | 3nm/2nm utilization, AI revenue % |
| 2026-07-16 | ASML | Q2 2026 | EUV bookings, China export impact, High-NA EUV ramp |
| 2026-07-23 | GOOGL | Q2 2026 | Capex guide, Gemini revenue, TPU progression |
| 2026-07-29 | MSFT | Q4 FY26 | Azure growth (AI subset), Microsoft AI business run-rate (Copilot-only ARR 未单独披露), FY27 capex guide |
| 2026-07-30 | META | Q2 2026 | Reality Labs burn, AI capex revision |
| 2026-07-30 | AAPL | Q3 FY26 | Services growth, iPhone AI adoption signals |
财报 (August 2026)¶
| 日期 | 公司 | 季度 | look_for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | AMZN | Q2 2026 | AWS growth (Trainium2 share), capex guide |
| 2026-08-13 | CSCO | Q4 FY26 | AI网络 contribution, Splunk integration |
| 2026-08-20 | NVDA | Q2 FY27 | Blackwell ramp, Rubin sampling, Q3 guide |
行业 conference + 产品发布¶
| 日期 | 事件 | 主要 ticker | 监控点 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Computex Taipei | NVDA / TSM / ASUS / Supermicro | Blackwell B200/B300 / TSM 2nm progress |
| 2026-06-08 | WWDC keynote (Apple) | AAPL | iOS / macOS / visionOS platform updates expected (specific version numbers pending Apple announcement; per past WWDC schedule + Reuters reports including Apple Intelligence + Siri chatbot enhancements); Apple Vision Pro 开发已 halted/paused (per Tom's Guide 2026 + Bloomberg 报道, Apple 未官方确认; 团队调到 Siri / smart glasses 方向) |
| 2026-06-01 | GTC Taipei keynote (concurrent w/ Computex) | NVDA | Jensen 主题, Rubin 出货 timing, Blackwell 更新 |
| 2026-08-01 to 08-06 | Black Hat USA 2026 (Trainings 8/1-8/4, Summit 8/4, Briefings 8/5-8/6, Mandalay Bay Las Vegas) | CRWD / NET / Palantir | Cybersecurity AI use cases (source) |
| 2026-08-27 | **NVDA Earnings + Special** | NVDA | Q2 FY27 (above) + potential product reveal |
监管 + 政策¶
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 ticker |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC 利率决议 (含 SEP / dot plot) | All AI (利率 + 流动性影响估值) |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC 利率决议 (实际会议 7/28-29, 决定日 7/29 per Fed FOMC calendar) | All AI |
| 2026-08-15 | 13F deadline (Q2 持仓披露) | All ticker (机构持仓 trend 信号) |
| 持续 | EU AI Act 实施阶段 | OpenAI / Anthropic / Google (合规成本) |
| 持续 | US-China 进一步出口管制 review | NVDA / ASML / TSM (敞口 ticker) |
怎么用这个日历¶
步骤 1: 找跟你 thesis 相关的 catalyst¶
| 你 thesis 类 | 监控 |
|---|---|
| 长期 NVDA bull | Q1/Q2 FY27 财报 + GTC Asia + hyperscaler capex guides |
| HBM 紧缺 thesis | MU Q3 财报 + SK Hynix earnings + Samsung qualify update |
| Hyperscaler capex 拐点 | MSFT FY27 capex guide (7/29) + GOOGL Q2 (7/23) + AMZN (8/6) |
| 中国 AI thesis | DeepSeek 任何新版 + Huawei Ascend update + 出口管制 review |
步骤 2: 在 thesis yaml 加 catalyst¶
catalysts_90d:
- date: 2026-05-20
event: "NVDA Q1 FY27 财报 (AMC) — 已发"
look_for: "Data Center >$70B (consensus ~$73B), 总 revenue $78B ±2%, GM 75%, FY27 全年 guide"
actual: "Revenue $81.6B / Data Center $75.2B / GM 74.9% (GAAP) — DC vs consensus $73B beat; Q2 FY27 guide $91B"
source: "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000051/q1fy27pr.htm"
- date: 2026-06-01
event: "GTC Taipei keynote (concurrent w/ Computex)"
look_for: "Rubin platform 出货时间"
步骤 3: 财报当晚 verify¶
打开 Motley Fool transcripts (财报后 1-2 天免费上) 对照你 look_for.
日历是 reference, 不是 timing 信号
catalyst 可能发生但 thesis 不变 (eg. NVDA 财报超预期但股价没动). Catalyst 的价值是强制你季度 verify, 不是 buy/sell trigger.