↔️ SFTBY — Company Profile (Teaching)¶
Teaching site, not investment advice. Specific market cap / stock price / financial figures change frequently and are intentionally omitted; use the official announcement + IR links below for real-time data.
📌 Basics¶
| Dimension | Content | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Core business | Investment holding company — Vision Fund + direct holdings ARM (~80%+) + OpenAI (~11%) + Stargate equity partner + others (Coupang / Didi / WeWork legacy, etc.) | wiki |
| Founded / HQ | 1981 / Tokyo, Japan | wiki |
| CEO / Founder | Masayoshi Son (founder + CEO since founding) | Company announcement |
| Primary listing | Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE): 9984 (primary) + US OTC ADR: SFTBY (1 ADR = 0.5 common shares) | — |
| SEC filings | Does not file — Japanese company; financials filed on TSE | TSE |
| Fiscal year | Ends March 31 (FY26 = 2025/04 – 2026/03) | — |
💡 Real-time market cap / share price / NAV (Net Asset Value of holdings): see company IR + Yahoo links below.
📐 LEDGER anchors¶
- SoftBank stake in OpenAI: ~11% officially disclosed (LEDGER F-029; not the earlier ~17% in some media reports)
- SoftBank-OpenAI capital commitment: $40B+ (2025/04 commit + 2025/12 follow-on, $41B fully funded per SoftBank IR)
- Stargate US: SoftBank/OAI/Oracle/MGX as equity partners (LEDGER F-022)
- ARM holdings: ~80%+ (post 2023/09 IPO, SoftBank holds but has not significantly trimmed)
🏭 Supply Chain Coordinates (Part 1-C6 framework)¶
Portfolio (as an investment holding company, "supply chain" = investment portfolio)¶
| Holding | What flows | Strategic position |
|---|---|---|
ARM (NASDAQ: ARM) |
~80%+ stake in ARM | Core strategic (CPU IP, future phones+servers+AI) |
OPENAI (private) |
~11% (LEDGER F-029) + Stargate capital commitment | Strategic AI bet |
| Stargate US + UAE | Equity partner capital backing | Indirect capital return (tied to OAI valuation) |
| Vision Fund I + II holdings (Coupang / DoorDash / Klaviyo / Lemonade / Didi etc.) | Global tech portfolio | Historical leveraged bets; rebalanced after 2020-2024 markdowns |
T-Mobile (historical, Sprint merger) |
Largely divested | legacy |
Funding (Upstream)¶
| Source | What flows | Key dependency |
|---|---|---|
| Japanese domestic banks + international bond markets | Large-scale leverage financing (SoftBank leverage ratio is high) | Interest-rate sensitive |
| Post-IPO ARM valuation upside + partial position sales | Liquidity source | Strategic |
Competitors (other investment groups)¶
- Tech investing: Berkshire Hathaway (
BRK.B, dominated by AAPL) / Tiger Global (no public ticker, LEDGER F-066) / Sequoia / a16z - Private AI investing: AMZN (Anthropic) / GOOGL (Anthropic) / MSFT (OpenAI)
💼 Business Model + Value Capture (Part 1-C7 view)¶
- Revenue / profit structure: Driven by portfolio fair-value changes (NAV) + partial Vision Fund management fees — financial results extremely volatile
- Gross margin: Not applicable (investment holding company; look at NAV)
- Value capture method: Through portfolio company valuation appreciation + IPO exit (e.g., ARM 2023/09 IPO) — dependent on capital markets
- Substitution difficulty: Unlike Buffett / Berkshire, SoftBank's ARM + OpenAI two core holdings are unique (not replicable)
🏰 Moat Assessment (Part 3-C2 Buffett 5-step lens)¶
| Type | Strength (0-1) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Brand | 0.7 | Masayoshi Son has high name recognition (tech investing icon), but also controversial |
| Switching cost | 0.4 | Investment holding company has no traditional switching cost |
| Network effects | 0.6 | Vision Fund investment network + founder relationships (but waning in recent years) |
| Scale + cost | 0.6 | Large capital scale (Vision Fund $100B+) — both advantage and burden |
Composite: 2.3 / 4 → moderate moat, high valuation volatility, ARM + OpenAI two mega-bets dominate
⚠️ Key Reverse-Trigger Conditions (Part 3-C5 anti-thesis view)¶
- Trigger 1 (valuation): OpenAI down-round (vs. $852B anchor) — SoftBank ~11% NAV directly declines
- Trigger 2 (valuation): ARM significant decline (vs. post-IPO price) — SoftBank NAV directly impacted
- Trigger 3 (annual): Stargate US + UAE deployment delayed / capital commitments not honored — SoftBank credit risk
- Trigger 4 (rates): Global interest rates rise — leverage model financing costs spike
- Trigger 5 (low probability): Vision Fund legacy portfolio (Coupang / Didi / WeWork legacy) sees fresh markdowns
🔗 Teaching Cross-References¶
- Part 1-C4 · How the money flows — SoftBank is core source for OpenAI capital flow
- Part 1-C10 · 5 real cases — Stargate / ARM IPO / SoftBank strategy
- Part 4-C10 · ARM IPO + SoftBank — ARM stake + SoftBank leverage model
📚 Official Announcements + Primary Sources (look it up yourself)¶
- SoftBank Group IR (English) — quarterly / annual reports + NAV data
- SoftBank Group financials (TSE 9984) — full financials + holdings
- SoftBank-OpenAI announcement (2025/04) — LEDGER F-029
Real-time quote: Yahoo Finance SFTBY (OTC ADR) / TSE 9984.T
Teaching use · numbers change — learn the method, not the specific figures · investment decisions are based on your own research + risk tolerance